Munich Re assess the potential of anti-obesity medications to reverse upwards obesity trends and improve health outcomes
Munich Re’s Life Science Report 2025 looks at obesity and the impact of anti-obesity medications on mortality and morbidity. Obesity is expected to continue to trend upward worldwide, with projections that more than half of the global population will be overweight or obese by 2035. Obesity is associated with a range of adverse health risks, and corresponding higher mortality and morbidity.
In the past decade, a range of injectable glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists drugs (such as Ozempic or Wegovy), initially approved for type 2 diabetes mellitus management, have been shown to be effective in weight loss and approved for use to manage obesity. Given their popularity (and profitability), many more medications in this class are being researched and aim to be bought to market, including an oral version and a longer-acting monthly injectable. If these weight-loss drugs can stop or reverse increasing obesity rates, the ramifications to mortality and morbidity could be huge, with corresponding impacts on life, disability and critical illness insurance products.
Medical literature continues to highlight added benefits the new generation of weight loss drugs may have on many other medical conditions, from cardiovascular disease to obstructive sleep apnoea and certain neurological diseases.
Key to weight loss effectiveness is anti-obesity medications being taken in conjunction with lifestyle counselling about nutrition and exercise. Products like AIA’s Vitality programme could be key to help steer users of these medications towards better health outcomes.
Munich Re analyse a hypothetical US scenario to quantify the potential impact these medications could have on insurance portfolios. They make several assumptions, and choose a long-term horizon. Their final projection is a 21% mortality reduction for non-severely obese individuals, and a 40% morality reduction for severely obese individuals over the next 10 – 20 years. Munich Re highlight that insurers need dedicated, knowledgeable medical teams to address these findings with regards to potential insurance impacts.
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